This line is going through the roof. Pac Ten against MAC seems like a no-brainer and the public is buying into the fact that Pac Ten is 12-0 all-time against MAC teams. This includes Arizona going 2-0 over the last two seasons but both of those games were at home. The Toledo offense, despite losing quarterback Aaron Opelt and second leading receiver Stephen Williams, is going to be a potent unit once again. Toledo will utilize a spread offense again this year by stretching the field with multiple wide receiver sets and implementing the running game once the defense adjusts. The Rockets return three of the other top receivers including Eric Page who led the nation among freshman with 82 catches for 1,159 yards. It will be up to quarterback Austin Dantin to move the offense and he played well in starting three games for the injured Opelt as a freshman. The offensive line is pretty solid, and it all starts with senior center Kevin Kowalski. He is one of four returning starters on the line who combined have a total of 100 starts under their belts and that experience is huge. The Wildcats lost defensive coordinator Mark Stoops to Florida St. so there could be some transitional issues on that side of the ball. Arizona brings back only four starters on the defense but it lost its top four tacklers including two All-Pac Ten players; cornerback Devin Ross and safety Cam Nelson. The weakness is at linebacker and defensive tackle and being vulnerable up the middle is never a good thing. That vulnerability then opens up opportunities over the top when a defense is forced to lean forward anticipating the run. It is going to take time for this unit to come together. The Rockets losing season a year ago can be attributed to the defense that allowed 37.7 ppg, 116th in the nation. There is no where to go but up and that is the expectation this year. Head coach Tim Beckman was a defensive coordinator at Oklahoma St. and a secondary coach at Ohio St. so he knows his defense and his plan is to revolve the team around that unit. The problem last year was it was his first season and it was a new system. Now the system has been in place and it will be more effective. In the off season, a great deal of emphasis was placed on helping the defense to improve their performance from last season. It's expected that the return of senior cornerback Desmond Marrow coupled with the leadership of linebacker Archie Donald should help. The Wildcats should improve their offense this season as it was ranked 58th and 61st overall and in scoring respectively but how much will it improve? The athleticism of the Rockets secondary should allow them to keep pace with Arizona's receivers. Arizona is just 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games as favorites between 10.5 and 21 points and it is 1-4-1 ATS as road favorites over the last two years. Toledo has always been a solid play at home and it is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog. The Rockets have hosted six BCS schools since 2001 and are 5-1 SU and ATS. 9* Toledo Rockets

We took care of a contrarian total last night as Colorado and Philadelphia flew ‘Over’ the total despite numerous public trends that were favoring the ‘Under’. We will be using the same rationale tonight as everything seems to point toward another low scoring game but the value goes the other way in this contrarian viewpoint. Tampa bay has gone ‘Under’ in five of its last six games so recent history players will look at that and go with the flow. The problem with that however is the fact that all six of those games were played at home where the Rays are 39-28-2 to the ‘Under’ on the season. Conversely they are 33-28-3 to the ‘Over’ on the road and while that is not a huge high scoring percentage, it is enough to show the differences. Tampa Bay games average 9.6 rpg on the road compared to 8.2 rpg at home. Baltimore is just the opposite. Its games average 8.5 rpg on the road and 9.1 rpg at home. Even though the majority of home game have gone ‘Under’, it is only a difference of five games, while on the road, the ‘Under’ has come in 15 more times than the ‘Over’. Prior to the last two games against the Red Sox going ‘Over’, the Orioles had gone ‘Under’ in six straight games and that can also be playing into the value. Matt Garza has been outstanding this season and outstanding of late. He has tossed three straight quality starts after a rough patch of inconsistencies. He has dominated Baltimore for the most part as the ‘Under’ is 7-2-1 in his last 10 starts against the Orioles and that adds value since only one of those 10 games had a total of less than nine. The Ray’s have gone ‘Under’ in four of his last five starts but that is mostly due to poor run support as they have scored three runs or fewer in each of those four games. That changes tonight. The Orioles counter with Kevin Millwood who has actually been pitching better of late. He has tossed quality outings in four of his last five starts and run support has been a problem as well. Baltimore has lost eight of his last nine starts as it has scored four runs or fewer seven times and two runs or fewer five times. This has led to the ‘Under’ coming through in five of his last six trips to the hill. In Millwood’s last 11 starts, only once has there been a total posted less than nine. Again, that is value here. The ‘Over’ is 6-2-1 in the Rays last nine games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game and the ‘Over’ is 18-9 in their last 27 road games after one or more consecutive unders this season. Also, the ‘Over’ is 6-1-1 in Garza’s last eight starts as a favorite between -151 and -200. On the other side, the ‘Over’ is 6-2-1 in Millwood’s last nine starts against teams with a winning record. 9* Over Tampa Bay Rays/Baltimore Orioles