On Monday night The Spurs travel to Phoenix to take on the Suns, in what appears to be the most competitive second round series in the NBA Playoffs. In this piece we will examine all the numbers and shed light on who has the best chance to win this exciting second round Match up.

In the NBA regular season, the Phoenix Suns finished four games better than the San Antonio Spurs. From 1939 through the 2010 NBA Preliminary round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by four regular-season games, they have won the series 20 of 27 times for a .741 win percentage in 7 games series. The Spurs have a 25-16 series record, a 10-9 Quarterfinals-round series record, and a 23-18 Game 1 record, while Phoenix has a 14-19 series record, an 8-9 Quarterfinals-round record, and a 15-18 Game 1 record in best of 7 game series. In the season series the Host team won all 3 times. Phoenix won both of their home games vs the Spurs by double digits. The Spurs won their only meeting at home vs the Suns by 3 points. The Spurs had big problems stopping the Suns high powered offense as the Suns shot over 50% in all 3 games. Not surprisingly the Spurs struggle when allowing a team to shoot 50% or better this season and were 1-12 ats in those games. In contrast the Suns were 35-5 straight up and against the spread when shooting 50% or better from the field. San Antonio is a decent road team at 22-22 out scoring teams 96-95. At home they are 31-12 with a 104-96 advantage. In contrast the Suns are 34-10 at home winning by an average 112-102 score. On the road the Suns are 23-20 with a 107-106 average score. So as we can see both teams are pretty similar on the road with The Suns having a small advantage at home. This is somewhat rare for a #2 seed vs a #7 seed. This shows how good the Western Conference really is.

Now lets take a look at some possible qualifying angles that may come into play in this series. The Spurs have played under the total 9 of 10 times as a road dog off a road game, this season. This comes into play in Game 2 of the series. Phoenix has won and covered 7 of 8 times at home after shooting 50% or better on the road in their previous game. This scenario would play out in a game where the Suns would return home from Texas later in the series.

This should be a very energetic and exciting series. The Suns have lost almost every recent series they have played vs the Spurs, they will get the call here to win this series as they appear to have too much fire power for a Spurs team who has shown they cannot adequately defend against the Suns. Look for this series to be a long 6-7 games series with Phoenix emerging as the winner. Enjoy the series and good luck with all your wagers, this NBA Playoff season.

R.Vinciletti.

R.Vinciletti is a sports wagering consultant and founder of Golden Contender Sports Consulting. Rob has started the NBA Playoffs in fine fashion and is currently on a solid 19-6 run in the NBA. You can listen to Rob and get a free pick on Monday nights at 8:05 eastern, on the weekly sports talk radio show "The Bandbox" hosted by Anthony Pierno on 88.9 Wsia.fm. RV
 

Rob Vinciletti
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